[1]赵旭.基于“四阶段”模型的高速铁路货运需求预测[J].高速铁路技术,2024,15(06):27-33.[doi:10.12098/j.issn.1674-8247.2024.06.005]
　ZHAO Xu.High-speed Railway Freight Demand Forecasting Based on the “Four-Stage” Model[J].HIGH SPEED RAILWAY TECHNOLOGY,2024,15(06):27-33.[doi:10.12098/j.issn.1674-8247.2024.06.005]
点击复制

基于“四阶段”模型的高速铁路货运需求预测()
分享到：

《高速铁路技术》[ISSN:1674-8247/CN:51-1730/U]

卷:
15卷
期数:
2024年06期
页码:
27-33
栏目:
理论探索
出版日期:
2024-12-15

文章信息/Info

Title:
High-speed Railway Freight Demand Forecasting Based on the “Four-Stage” Model
文章编号:
1674-8247(2024)06-0027-07
作者:
赵旭
(中铁工程设计咨询集团有限公司, 北京 100055)
Author(s):
ZHAO Xu
(China Railway Engineering Design and Consulting Group Co., Ltd., Beijing 100055,China)
关键词:
“四阶段”法;  模型;  高速铁路货运;  快递;  需求预测
Keywords:
“Four-Stage” Method;  model;  high-speed railway freight;  express;  demand forecasting
分类号:
U294
DOI:
10.12098/j.issn.1674-8247.2024.06.005
文献标志码:
A
摘要:
为合理预测高速铁路货运需求,科学指导高速铁路货运网络规划布局,构建科学的高速铁路货运需求预测模型势在必行。本文结合高速铁路货运需求特点,从高速铁路货运目标市场出发,针对快递运输需求构建了“四阶段”高速铁路货运需求预测模型理论框架,并对模型参数标定方法进行了全面阐述,最后基于全国高速铁路货运需求预测对构建的预测模型可操作性进行了验证。
Abstract:
To reasonably predict the demand for high-speed rail freight and scientifically guide the planning and layout of high-speed rail freight network, it is imperative to build a scientific forecasting model for high-speed rail freight demand. Based on the characteristics and the target market of high-speed rail freight demand, this paper constructed the theoretical framework of “Four-Stage”high-speed rail freight demand forecasting model for express transportation demand, and comprehensively expounded the parameter calibration method of the model. Finally, the operability of the constructed forecasting model was verified based on the national high-speed rail freight demand forecasting.

参考文献/References:

[1] 国办发〔2022〕17号,国务院办公厅关于印发“十四五”现代物流发展规划的通知 [Z].
Guo Ban Fa〔2022〕No. 17, Notice of the General Office of the State Council on the Issuance of the “14th Five-Year Plan” Modern Logistics Development Plan [Z].
[2] 铁总运〔2013〕192号,中国铁路总公司关于印发《高速铁路快件运输管理暂行办法》的通知[Z].
Tie Zong Yun〔2013〕No. 192, Notice of China Railway Corporation on Issuing the Interim Measures for the Management of High-speed Rail Express Transportation [Z].
[3] TB 10621-2014高速铁路设计规范 [S].
TB 10621-2014 Code for Design of High Speed Railway[S].
[4] 江思雨. 高速铁路货运动车组货物作业地点选择研究[D]. 成都: 西南交通大学, 2020.
JIANG Siyu. Study on Selection Freight Operating Locations of Freight EMU on High-speed Railway[D].Chengdu: Southwest Jiaotong University, 2020.
[5] 李敏. 双铁联动模式下的高速铁路快运货物城市分拨体系构想[J].高速铁路技术, 2023, 14(1): 26-31.
LI Min. Conception of Turban Distribution System of High-speed Railway Express Freight under a Bimodal System of High-speed Railway and Metro[J].High Speed Railway Technology, 2023, 14(1): 26-31.
[6] 中国中铁二院工程集团有限责任公司.中国工程设计技术手册:铁路运量 [M].北京:中国铁道出版社, 2010.
China Railway Eryuan Engineering Group Co., Ltd. China Engineering Design Technical Manual: Railway Transport Volume [M]. Beijing: China Railway Publishing House, 2010.
[7] 栾廷玉. 高速铁路货运班列货类选择及货运量预测研究[D]. 北京: 北京交通大学, 2018.
LUAN Tingyu. High Speed Rail Freight Train Cargo Class Selection and Freight Volume Forecast Research[D].Beijing: Beijing Jiaotong University, 2018.
[8] 梁皓妍. 高速铁路快递产品优化配置研究[D]. 北京: 北京交通大学, 2015.
LIANG Haoyan. Research on Optimal Allocation of Railway High Speed Express[D].Beijing: Beijing Jiaotong University, 2015.
[9] 张莹莹. 铁路货运高端产品市场需求预测和竞争力分析[D]. 北京: 北京交通大学, 2015.
ZHANG Yingying. Market Demand Forecast and Competitive Power Analysis of Railway High-end Freight Transport Product[D].Beijing: Beijing Jiaotong University, 2015.
[10] 霍明坤. 基于空铁博弈的高速铁路快递列车开行方案设计研究[D]. 北京: 北京交通大学, 2018.
HUO Mingkun. Research on the Train Operation Plan Organization of High-speed Rail Express Based on the Game between Rail and Air[D].Beijing: Beijing Jiaotong University, 2018.
[11] 高金俊, 张家发, 吴朝荣. 高速铁路开展快运物流有关问题的探讨[J]. 高速铁路技术, 2021, 12(1): 60-64.
GAO Jinjun, ZHANG Jiafa, WU Chaorong. On Related Problems of Express Delivery with High-speed Railway[J]. High Speed Railway Technology, 2021, 12(1): 60-64.
[12] 邵春福. 交通规划原理[M]. 2版. 北京: 中国铁道出版社, 2014.
SHAO Chunfu. Traffic Planning[M]. 2nd ed. Beijing: China Railway Publishing House, 2014.
[13] 王炜. 交通规划[M]. 北京: 人民交通出版社, 2007.
WANG Wei. Transportation Planning[M]. Beijing: China Communications Press, 2007.
[14] 王含嫣. 高速铁路成网条件下高速铁路快运多元需求预测研究[D]. 大连: 大连交通大学, 2019.
WANG Hanyan. Research on Multi-demand Forecast of High Speed Rail Express under High-speed Rail Network Conditions[D].Dalian: Dalian Jiaotong University, 2019.
[15] 赵怡婧. 成渝中线高速铁路功能定位及运输需求研究[J].高速铁路技术, 2023, 14(3): 87-91, 96.
ZHAO Yijing.A Study on Functional Orientation and Transport Demand of the Second Chengdu-Chongqing High-speed Railway[J]. High Speed Railway Technology, 2023, 14(3): 87-91, 96.

备注/Memo

备注/Memo:
收稿日期:2023-08-11
作者简介:赵旭(1989-),男,高级工程师。
基金项目:国家铁路局科研开发项目(KFJF2021- 052)
更新日期/Last Update: 2024-12-15