[1]邢雪生,张小虎.多维灰色模型GM(1, N)在铁路物流中心运量预测中的应用[J].高速铁路技术,2025,(01):63-67,73.[doi:10.12098/j.issn.1674-8247.2025.01.010]
　XING Xuesheng ZHANG Xiaohu.Application of GM(1, N)Model in the Prediction of Railway Logistics Centers Freight Volume[J].HIGH SPEED RAILWAY TECHNOLOGY,2025,(01):63-67,73.[doi:10.12098/j.issn.1674-8247.2025.01.010]
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多维灰色模型GM(1, N)在铁路物流中心运量预测中的应用()
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《高速铁路技术》[ISSN:1674-8247/CN:51-1730/U]

卷:
期数:
2025年01期
页码:
63-67,73
栏目:
研究创新
出版日期:
2025-02-20

文章信息/Info

Title:
Application of GM(1, N)Model in the Prediction of Railway Logistics Centers Freight Volume
文章编号:
1674-8247(2025)01-0063-05
作者:
邢雪生; 张小虎
(中铁工程设计咨询集团有限公司, 北京 100055)
Author(s):
XING Xuesheng ZHANG Xiaohu
(China Railway Engineering Design and Consulting Group Co., Ltd., Beijing 100055,China)
关键词:
铁路物流中心;  运量预测;  多维灰色模型;  灰色关联度;  熵权理论
Keywords:
railway logistics center;  freight volume prediction;  GM(1; N)Model;  grey correlation degree;  entropy weight theory
分类号:
U294
DOI:
10.12098/j.issn.1674-8247.2025.01.010
文献标志码:
A
摘要:
在深化铁路货运改革、建设现代化大物流的发展背景下,为完善铁路物流中心运量预测方法、提高货运量预测精度、推进铁路物流系统建设,本文在利用灰色系统理论进行货运量预测过程中,结合灰色关联度理论、熵权理论,对多维灰色模型GM(1,N)在铁路物流中心货运量预测方面进行深化拓展。结果表明:该模型能够依靠小样本进行原始数据重生成、预测发展趋势,对复杂非线性因素影响下的货运量预测具有较高的精确度,能够为铁路物流行业科学发展提供参考依据。
Abstract:
Against the backdrop of deepening reforms in railway freight transportation and the development of modern logistics, this paper aimed to improve the freight volume forecasting methods for railway logistics centers, enhance the accuracy of freight volume forecasting, and promote the construction of railway logistics systems. In the process of utilizing grey system theory for freight volume forecasting, this paper expanded the application of the multi-dimensional grey model GM(1,N)in freight volume forecasting for railway logistics centers by integrating grey correlation degree theory and entropy weight theory. The results indicate that this model can regenerate original data based on small samples and predict development trends, thus achieving high accuracy in freight volume forecasting under the influence of complex nonlinear factors. It provides a reference for the scientific development of the railway logistics industry.

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备注/Memo

备注/Memo:
收稿日期:2023-12-20
作者简介:邢雪生(1989-),男,工程师。
更新日期/Last Update: 2025-02-20