[1]詹敬.基于HHM-RFRM的高速铁路运营安全风险分析[J].高速铁路技术,2025,16(06):64-73.[doi:10.12098/j.issn.1674-8247.2025.06.010]
　ZHAN Jing.Analysis of High-speed Railway Operational Safety Risks Based on HHM-RFRM[J].HIGH SPEED RAILWAY TECHNOLOGY,2025,16(06):64-73.[doi:10.12098/j.issn.1674-8247.2025.06.010]
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基于HHM-RFRM的高速铁路运营安全风险分析()

《高速铁路技术》[ISSN:1674-8247/CN:51-1730/U]

卷:
16卷
期数:
2025年06期
页码:
64-73
栏目:
建造运维
出版日期:
2025-12-30

文章信息/Info

Title:
Analysis of High-speed Railway Operational Safety Risks Based on HHM-RFRM
文章编号:
1674-8247(2025)06-0064-10
作者:
詹敬
(国家铁路局装备技术中心, 北京 100070)
Author(s):
ZHAN Jing
(Equipment Technology Center of National Railway Administration, Beijing 100070,China)
关键词:
高速铁路;  安全风险;  风险管理;  等级全息建模;  贝叶斯网络
Keywords:
high-speed railway;  safety risks;  risk management prevention;  Hierarchical Holographic Modeling(HHM);  Bayesian network
分类号:
U298
DOI:
10.12098/j.issn.1674-8247.2025.06.010
文献标志码:
A
摘要:
高速铁路是多专业协同、综合性强的机电一体化复杂系统,其运营安全对各系统技术性能提出了极高要求,即使是细微风险都有可能诱发极其严重的行车事故。在对高速铁路运营特性及情景开展分析的基础上,从人员、设备、环境、管理4个维度对高速铁路运营过程展开多维度、深层次的风险因素辨识,通过等级全息建模(Hierarchical Holographic Modeling,HHM),构建了高速铁路运营安全风险识别的HHM框架。运用风险过滤、评级与管理(Risk Filtering,Ranking and Management,RFRM)方法,结合贝叶斯网络模型,对高速铁路运营安全风险进行过滤、评级、多重标准评价及定量评级。最后,以京津城际铁路运营安全风险为例,对本方法进行验证。研究表明,该方法有效克服了传统风险评估方法仅能对单一风险因素的系统影响进行评估的局限性,为高速铁路运营安全风险管理提供了新的思路与方法支撑。
Abstract:
High-speed railways are complex, multidisciplinary, and integrated electromechanical systems. Its operational safety imposes extremely high demands on the technical performance of all subsystems, as even minor risks may trigger severe operational accidents. Based on an analysis of the characteristics and scenarios of high-speed railway operations, this paper identified multi-dimensional and in-depth risk factors from four aspects: personnel, equipment, environment, and management. Through Hierarchical Holographic Modeling(HHM), an HHM framework for identifying operational safety risks in high-speed railways was established. By employing the Risk Filtering, Ranking, and Management(RFRM)method, combined with a Bayesian network model, operational safety risks of high-speed railways were filtered, ranked, evaluated with multiple criteria, and quantitatively assessed. Finally, the proposed method was validated using the operational safety risks of the Beijing-Tianjin Intercity Railway as a case study. The results indicate that the approach effectively overcomes the limitation of traditional risk assessment methods, which can only evaluate the impact of single risk factors, thus providing new insights and methods for high-speed railway operational safety risks management.

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备注/Memo

备注/Memo:
收稿日期:2024-12-19
作者简介:詹敬(1992-),男,工程师。
更新日期/Last Update: 2025-12-30