[1]李侠,杨鑫,魏歆宇,等.基于系统动力学的中速磁浮建设项目投资风险分析研究[J].高速铁路技术,2024,15(06):57-63.[doi:10.12098/j.issn.1674-8247.2024.06.010]
　LI Xia YANG Xin WEI Xinyu DAI Feng.Analysis on Investment Risk of Medium Speed Maglev Construction Project Based on System Dynamics[J].HIGH SPEED RAILWAY TECHNOLOGY,2024,15(06):57-63.[doi:10.12098/j.issn.1674-8247.2024.06.010]
点击复制

基于系统动力学的中速磁浮建设项目投资风险分析研究()
分享到：

《高速铁路技术》[ISSN:1674-8247/CN:51-1730/U]

卷:
15卷
期数:
2024年06期
页码:
57-63
栏目:
研究创新
出版日期:
2024-12-15

文章信息/Info

Title:
Analysis on Investment Risk of Medium Speed Maglev Construction Project Based on System Dynamics
文章编号:
1674-8247(2024)06-0057-07
作者:
李侠1; 杨鑫1; 魏歆宇2; 代丰3
(1.西安财经大学, 西安 710100; 2.北京市政路桥股份有限公司, 北京 100032; 3.中铁二院工程集团有限责任公司, 成都 610031)
Author(s):
LI Xia1 YANG Xin1 WEI Xinyu2 DAI Feng3
(1.Xi'an University of Finance and Economics, Xian 710100, China; 2. Beijing Municipal Road & Bridge Co., Ltd., Beijing 100032, China; 3.China Railway Eryuan Engineering Group Co., Ltd., Chengdu 610031, China)
关键词:
中速磁浮;  投资风险;  系统动力学
Keywords:
medium-speed maglev;  investment risk;  system dynamics
分类号:
F570; F572
DOI:
10.12098/j.issn.1674-8247.2024.06.010
文献标志码:
A
摘要:
中速磁浮作为新制式城市轨道交通,具有地铁、有轨电车等不具备的优点,在轨道交通中以噪音小而闻名。然而,中速磁浮在我国还处于研究阶段且没有已建成项目,缺乏足够的资料和经验。因此,本文通过文献调研结合中速磁浮的特点建立指标体系,同时对各指标进行赋值并建立因果图和流量存量图,确定各变量的系统动力学方程并对建立的模型进行检验。最后,通过对该模型仿真模拟,得到初始风险水平值和组合风险水平值。结果表明:该模型适用于一定条件下的中速磁浮投资风险分析; 采用组合投资策略时,其风险水平会显著提高; 在设计投资风险模型时,仅考虑主要风险因素的影响,后续工作中需要更全面地考虑各种风险间的关系。
Abstract:
Medium-speed maglev, as a new form of urban rail transit, possesses advantages not found in subways and trams, and is renowned in rail transit for its low noise levels. However, medium-speed maglev is still in the research phase in China, with no completed projects, resulting in a lack of sufficient data and experience. Therefore, this paper established an indicator system through literature research, combined with the characteristics of medium-speed maglev. It assigns values to each indicator, constructs causality diagrams and flow-stock diagrams, determines the system dynamics equations for each variable, and validates the established model. Finally, through simulation of the model, initial risk level values and combined risk level values were obtained. The results indicate that the model is applicable for analyzing investment risks in medium-speed maglev projects under certain conditions; when adopting a portfolio investment strategy, the risk level significantly increases. When designing the investment risk model, only the impacts of major risk factors were considered, and it is necessary to more comprehensively consider the relationships between various risks in subsequent work.

参考文献/References:

[1] 伍卫凡. 600 km/h高速磁浮线路参数研究[J]. 高速铁路技术, 2024, 15(1): 7-12, 16.
WU Weifan. Study on Track Parameters of 600 km/h High-speed Maglev[J]. High Speed Railway Technology, 2024, 15(1): 7-12, 16.
[2] 李恒鑫. 高速磁浮车站客运列车作业方案优化研究[J]. 高速铁路技术, 2023, 14(4): 89-94, 114.
LI Hengxin. A Study on Optimization of Passenger Train Operation Scheme in High-speed Maglev Station[J]. High Speed Railway Technology, 2023, 14(4): 89-94, 114.
[3] 陈民章. 城市轨道交通PPP项目投资风险评价的研究[J]. 全国流通经济, 2017(18): 60-61.
CHEN Minzhang. Research on Investment Risk Assessment of PPP Project in Urban Rail Transit[J]. China Circulation Economy, 2017(18): 60-61.
[4] 葛泉胜, 唐旭南, 李洁, 等. 轨道交通PPP项目全生命周期风险防控体系建设[J]. 国企管理, 2018, 5(14): 30-42.
GE Quansheng, TANG Xunan, LI Jie, et al. Construction of the Full Life Cycle Risk Prevention and Control System of Rail Transit PPP Project [J]. State-owned Enterprise Management, 2018, 5(14): 30-42.
[5] 韩红霞, 刘松, 崔武文. 基于Monte-Carlo的城轨PPP项目投资风险评估[J]. 土木工程与管理学报, 2020, 37(1): 75-81.
HAN Hongxia, LIU Song, CUI Wuwen. Investment Risk Assessment of Urban Rail PPP Project Based on Monte-Carlo[J]. Journal of Civil Engineering and Management, 2020, 37(1): 75-81.
[6] 黄成名, 鲍慧明, 张继鹏, 等. 高速及超高速磁悬浮线路平面设计参数研究[J]. 高速铁路技术, 2024, 15(1): 17-22, 28.
HUANG Chengming, BAO Huiming, ZHANG Jipeng, et al. Study on Planar Design Parameters for High-speed and Ultra-high-speed Maglev Lines[J]. High Speed Railway Technology, 2024, 15(1): 17-22, 28.
[7] 姚航. 城市轨道交通PPP项目超投资风险与对策[J]. 智能城市, 2020, 6(7): 182-183.
YAO Hang. Risk and Countermeasures of Over-investment in PPP Project of Urban Rail Transit[J]. Intelligent City, 2020, 6(7): 182-183.
[8] 王义强. 工程总承包模式下铁路建设项目投资管理研究[J]. 铁路工程技术与经济, 2022, 37(3): 60-62.
WANG Yiqiang. Research on Railway Construction Project Investment Management under EPC Mode[J]. Railway Engineering Technology and Economy, 2022, 37(3): 60-62.
[9] 汪洋, 张威, 李亚东. 城市轨道交通BT项目投资风险评价方法探究[J]. 项目管理技术, 2016, 14(2): 27-31.
WANG Yang, ZHANG Wei, LI Yadong. Research on Investment Risk Evaluation Method of BT Project in Urban Rail Transit[J]. Project Management Technology, 2016, 14(2): 27-31.
[10] 李林卿, 吕敏, 刘艳华, 等. “一带一路” 沿线基础设施投资风险评估 [J].综合运输, 2024, 46(2): 3-10.
LI Linqing, LU Min, LIU Yanhua, et al. Infrastructure Investment Risk Assessment along the “Belt and Road” [J]. Integrated Transportation, 2024, 46(2): 3-10.
[11] 齐锡晶, 赵磊, 张铂沣. 基于SD的建设项目工程进度风险分析与仿真[J]. 建筑经济, 2022, 43(S1): 376-383.
QI Xijing, ZHAO Lei, Zhang Baifeng. Risk Analysis and Simulation of Construction Projects Based on SD [J]. Construction Economy, 2022, 43(S1): 376-383.
[12] 佟来生. 长沙磁浮快线列车概述[J]. 电力机车与城轨车辆, 2020, 43(4): 1-5.
TONG Laisheng. Summary of Changsha Maglev Express Train[J].Electric Locomotives & Mass Transit Vehicles, 2020, 43(4): 1-5.

备注/Memo

备注/Memo:
收稿日期:2024-01-22
作者简介:李侠(1971-),女,副教授。
更新日期/Last Update: 2024-12-15