[1]任俊桦.基于类比分析的高速铁路和城际铁路运量预测研究[J].高速铁路技术,2023,14(01):54-58，75.[doi:10.12098/j.issn.1674-8247.2023.01.010]
　REN Junhua.A Study on Forecast of Traffic Volume for High-speed Railway and Intercity Railway Based on Analog Analysis[J].HIGH SPEED RAILWAY TECHNOLOGY,2023,14(01):54-58，75.[doi:10.12098/j.issn.1674-8247.2023.01.010]
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基于类比分析的高速铁路和城际铁路运量预测研究()
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《高速铁路技术》[ISSN:1674-8247/CN:51-1730/U]

卷:
14卷
期数:
2023年01期
页码:
54-58，75
栏目:
出版日期:
2023-03-10

文章信息/Info

Title:
A Study on Forecast of Traffic Volume for High-speed Railway and Intercity Railway Based on Analog Analysis
文章编号:
1674-8247（2023）01-0054-05
作者:
任俊桦1; 2
1.中国铁路信息科技集团有限公司，北京100038;2.中铁信（北京）网络技术研究院有限公司，北京100038
Author(s):
REN Junhua1; 2
1.China Railway Information Technology Group Co. ，Ltd. ，Beijing 100038 ，China;2.China Railway Information（Beijing）Network Technlogy Research Institute Co. ，Ltd. ，Beijing 100038 ，China
关键词:
高速铁路;  城际铁路;  类比分析;  客运量预测;  趋势客运量
Keywords:
high-speed railway; intercity railway; analogy analysis; forecast of passenger traffic volume; trend passenger volume
分类号:
U293.13
DOI:
10.12098/j.issn.1674-8247.2023.01.010
文献标志码:
A
摘要:
对高速铁路和城际铁路运营客运量分析总结，提出切合实际的客运量预测方法，对高速铁路或城际铁路客运量预测工作很有必要。本文基于对全国范围内不同区域建成运营的高速铁路和城际铁路初期诱增和转移客运量结构的分析，获得高速铁路或城际铁路运营后客运量与所在通道总趋势客运量间数量关系，提出了基于类比分析的高速铁路和城际铁路客运量预测方法，并通过案例对该方法的有效性进行了验证。研究成果可为高速铁路或城际铁路项目客运量预测提供参考。
Abstract:
It is necessary to analyze and summarize the passenger traffic volumes of high-speed railways and intercity railways，so as to put forward practical methods for forecasting the passenger traffic volume of a high-speed railway or intercity railway. For the purpose of this paper，a structural analysis was carried out on the passenger traffic volumes induced and transferred at the initial operation stage of high-speed railways and intercity railways in different regions in China，to establish the quantitative relationship between the passenger traffic volume of a high-speed railway or intercity railway in operation and the total trend passenger traffic volume of the corridor where it is located. Finally，a method for forecasting the passenger traffic volume of a high-speed railway or intercity railway based on analogy analysis was proposed and verified through case study. The study results can provide a reference for forecasting the passenger traffic volume of a high-speed railway or intercity railway project.

参考文献/References:

［1］陈利，陈仕列. 芒市至临沧铁路线路走向方案研究［J］. 高速铁路技术，2020，11（4）： 95 - 99. CHEN Li，CHEN Shilie. Study on the Route Selection Options of Mangshi-Lincang Railway［J］. High Speed Railway Technology，2020，11（4）： 95 - 99.
［2］王晓. 客运专线客运量预测方法研究［D］. 长沙：中南大学， 2012. WANG Xiao. Research on Passenger Volume Predict of Passenger Dedicated Line［D］. Changsha： Central South University，2012.
［3］李艳红. 基于四阶段法的南昌至赣州铁路客运量预测研究［D］.武汉： 武汉理工大学，2010. LI Yanhong. Research on the Passenger Volume Forecasting of Nanchang-Ganzhou Railway with Four Stage Method［D］. Wuhan：Wuhan University of Technology，2010.
［4］李向楠. 高速铁路实际运营与设计客运量对比分析［J］. 交通企业管理，2019，34（2）： 64 - 66. LI Xiangnan. Comparative Analysis of Actual Operation and Designed Passenger Flow of High-Speed Railway［J］. Transportation Enterprise Management，2019，34（2）： 64 - 66.

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备注/Memo

备注/Memo:
收稿日期：2022-01-20
作者简介：任俊桦（1987-），女，工程师。
基金项目：国家开发银行委托项目（2020001106）
更新日期/Last Update: 2023-03-10